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backLATINtalk May, 2012

Mexico's March Industrial Production Seen Up 2.5%

Growth in Mexican industrial production probably moderated in March, with car production still at very high levels, but signs exist that overall manufacturing slowed along with the U.S.

Industrial output likely grew 2.5% from March 2011, according to the median estimate of seven economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires. The gain would be less than the year-on-year increases of 5.9% in February and 4.3% in January.

"We expect industrial production to moderate to 2.8% year-on-year in March," Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a research note. Although auto production maintained a strong pace, exports decelerated notably in March with slower U.S. industrial activity, the firm said.

Mexican and U.S. manufacturing activity are closely linked due to deep bilateral trade ties.

Morgan Stanley said recent manufacturing data from the U.S. "suggest that the manufacturing sector is showing a fair amount of resilience in the face of slowing global demand," but that "momentum in manufacturing is likely to be more subdued going forward."

March auto production rose 9% in Mexico to 268,625 vehicles, which was a record for any March, the Mexican Automobile Industry Association said. Most vehicles are exported.

Meanwhile, March production of crude oil by state-owned Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, was 2.55 million barrels a day on average, at an average export price $114.62 a barrel. That was better than in both January and February in volume and price.

The National Statistics Institute, or Inegi, is scheduled to report March industrial production Monday at 9 a.m. EDT.

Later next week, Inegi is scheduled to report gross domestic product for the first quarter. The Finance Ministry has estimated that GDP expanded 4% from the first quarter of 2011.

Source: 4-traders - GAI

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