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backEUROtalk April, 2012

East European trailer market grew by 58% in 2011

A forecast report issued by consultants CLEAR shows that there was 58% growth in heavy trailer demand in Eastern Europe in 2011. Thirteen of the fifteen countries covered in the report had growth of over 30%. Three markets grew by more than 100%.

The stellar performer in the region was, for the second year running, Turkey, which completely recovered from the downturn of 2009 to post record trailer demand in 2010 and 2011. This makes Turkey the largest trailer market in Eastern Europe and likely to remain so until overtaken by Russia again in the long term, with Poland relegated to third place. In fact, in 2011 Turkey was the largest market anywhere in Europe with the sole exception of Germany.

It must be remembered just how far the East European trailer market fell since the peak in 2007. After the initial drop of 11% in 2008 there was a collapse, resulting in a drop of 61% in 2009. The demand for new trailers was returned to the level of 2002. The drop was so drastic that it will take until 2014 to recover to the level of new trailer demand last seen in 2006.

Unlike Western Europe however, the drop in demand will not lead to a fall in the size of the total trailer parc (fleet), which even in 2009 was estimated to have grown by 3%. Over the next five years the trailer parc will grow by an average of 6.2%, which again is far higher than the figure for Western Europe.

Trailer demand in the countries of Eastern Europe will recover at different rates – some moving back onto a high growth path quite quickly. Others experienced such rapid growth from 2002 to 2007 that they now have nearly enough trailers to meet their countries’ transport needs. In these cases, trailer demand will never return to the levels seen in 2006/7.

Gary Beecroft, managing director of CLEAR said, “The outlook for East European new trailer demand in 2012 has not changed – like Western Europe there will be a fall in the market. However, the prospects for 2013/14 have brightened and are better than forecast last year. Turkey looked overheated in 2011, but if planned investments go ahead, it will enhance its position as a major trailer manufacturing centre over the next few years.”

Background

Many East European countries joined the EU in 2004, which resulted in booming demand for trailers. In particular, semi-trailer demand rocketed as the volumes of international transport increased, both within Eastern Europe and between East and West. From 2002 to 2007 the compound annual growth rate for trailer demand was 25.7%. Demand broke the 100,000 unit barrier in 2007 but fell to 40,000 in 2009.

77% of goods in Europe are moved by road and most of that proportion is transported on a trailer pulled by a truck.

The East European Trailer Market Report (April 2012), with forecasts to 2016, can be obtained from CLEAR using the contact details below. A new report for the West European market was issued in March 2012.

Source: CLEAR - GAI

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