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LATIN AMERICA: "Brazil: Anatomy of a breakdown - Still waiting to hit rock bottom" Analyst Note

LATIN AMERICA: "Brazil: Anatomy of a breakdown - Still waiting to hit rock bottom" Analyst Note. Analyst Note by PwC Autofacts.

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back to index backLATINtalk June,  2005


Brazil will replace Mexico as Latin America's largest economy this year, according to a recent IMF forecast

For the first time since 2000, Brazil is slated to hold the top position among Latin American economies. The South American country is expected to have a 2005 GDP of $732.1 billion, measured in U.S. dollars in current prices. Mexico, which has been the region's top economy since 2001, is expected to have a GDP of $743.1 billion, according to the database of the latest World Economic Outlook released by the International Monetary Fund in April.

Prior to 2001, Brazil had held the top ranking for 16 years. The IMF expects Brazil to hold on to its top position also next year.

Mexico will, however, continue to be the top economy in terms of GDP per capita, as measured in U.S. dollars in current prices. This year that figure will reach $6,771, which is higher than number two, Chile, with $6,272 and still considerably ahead of Brazil, with $4,123. And that is largely due to Brazil's population, which stood at 179.1 million last year, while Mexico counted 106.2 million residents, according to August 2004 data from the Population Reference Bureau.

While Panama is expected to continue having Latin America's third-highest GDP per capita, Venezuela will replace Costa Rica as the country with the fourth-largest, according to the forecast from the IMF.

On the bottom, Haiti will again continue to be the poorest country - both ranked on a per capita and GDP basis.

Both Brazil and Mexico are expected to see their economies expand by 3.7 percent this year, the IMF forecasts. Chile will note the strongest growth this year - 6.1 percent - followed by Argentina, with 6.0 percent GDP growth.

Also countries like Uruguay and Peru are slated to post decent growth - 5.0 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively.

The lowest growth will take place in the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Haiti and Paraguay, which are all expected to expand their GDP by 2.5 percent, according to the IMF.

Source: Latin Business Chronicle - GAI


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