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backCHINAtalk July, 2008

Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run

On May 28, 2008, the Global Economy and Development program at the Brookings Institution hosted a presentation by Angus Maddison on his findings in the second edition of Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run. Maddison discussed his analysis of the six major transitions in Chinese history, beginning with the transformation under the Sung Dynasty and ending in his predictions for the future of China’s economy. This conversation is particularly pertinent in light of China’s rapidly changing role in the world economy.

Mr. Maddison has a long history with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), having served as Head of the OEEC Economics Division from 1935 to 1962 when the organisation became the OECD. He most recently served as Head of the Central Analysis Division, a post he retained from 1971-1978. His OECD published book, Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run, is just one of 25 books he has authored or co-authored. He has also contributed a great number of articles to academic and financial journals.

Today, Mr. Maddison’s major research interest is the assessment of the forces affecting the economic growth performance of nations, with particular emphasis on quantitative analysis in historical and comparative perspectives.

Transcript
ANGUS MADDISON: I think history is really quite important if you’re looking at China because the past has quite a lot of resonance in the present and, in fact, the way the Chinese have regarded their place in the world economy is extremely different from that of the United States.

. . . What I’m projecting is that by 2030, in times of my numeraire which is 1990 Scot dollars, I expect China to have nearly $16,000 per capita income compared with nearly $46,000 in the United States. China will have surpassed the United States in total GDP, I think, around 2015 but by 2030 it will still only have a per capita income of a third of that in the United States.

. . . Now I had marked three kinds of problems which I foresaw in China. One is the extreme inequality you now have in China because a lot of the growth is taking place in urban areas and has favored a sort of new middle class…The second thing which is related to this is private property rights need to be strengthened.

The third point I had as a major problem was energy as an environmental problem because 60 percent of Chinese energy is derived from coal…Their carbon emissions, because of the dependency on coal, per capita are 29 percent of those in the United States, but their total emissions are bigger than in the United States even though their energy use is smaller.

To download the 66-page transcript, please click here.

Source: Brookings Institution - GAI

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