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back to index backEUROtalk October,  2016


European Truck Market Solid; UK Sees Weakness

Total European (EU+EFTA) registrations rose 16% in August, benefitting from a shift in selling days from July. Quarter-to-date European demand is up 6%, modestly below our estimate for 8% growth in Q3. Excluding the UK (down 15-20% yoy), European demand is up 9% quarter-to-date. While UK likely remains a headwind over the next few years, we believe the region has long-term upside with registrations still roughly 15% below prior peaks. Total European production is tracking up 1% quarter-to-date, versus our Q3 estimate for 3-4% growth.

- Total European (EU+EFTA) registrations rose 16% in August, benefitting from a shift in selling days from July. Taken together, July and August rose 6% versus our estimate for 8% growth in Q3. European growth remains solid with 1.5-2.0% GDP growth and unemployment rates improving.

- We see longer-term upside in the European market given demand is still roughly 15% below prior peaks. Over the next several years, however, some of this upside is likely offset by weakness in UK due to Brexit.” While this is a seasonally weak time period for UK, registrations have started to show weakness with quarter-to-date demand down 18% yoy (versus our estimate for flat demand). Given this backdrop, we expect EU production to rise 3-4% in 2017.

- Heavy truck demand leads the market higher. Heavy truck demand rose 15% yoy in August and is up 8% quarter-to-date. This compares favorably to the medium-duty market, which is down 1% quarter-to-date.

- Quarter-to-date country performance:

----- Countries with the strongest growth: Italy (+38% yoy), Poland and Sweden (+18%), Belgium (+12%)

----- Countries with weak or declining growth: United Kingdom (-18% yoy), Spain (+2%), Netherlands and Czech Republic (+3%).

- European truck production modestly below our Q3 estimate. Our checks indicate European truck production (including Russia) is up 1% quarter-to-date, modestly below our estimate for 3-4% growth. Production is tracking below registrations mainly due to Russia (excluded from registration figure), which is running down 15% YTD.

To download 6-page report, please click here.

Source: BAIRD - GAI




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