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back to index backEUROtalk October,  2016


Autos: Western European Demand Strengthens in August

Western European (EU15+EFTA) rose 8% yoy in August and is tracking up 2% for the quarter versus our Q3 estimate +4%. Italy and Spain saw the strongest demand, each rising 15-20% yoy in August. UK demand rose 3% in the month and remains stable post-Brexit. We expect the UK market to decline in 2017, but believe growth in other Western European countries supports stable/higher demand (similar to Ford’s outlook earlier this week). Build is tracking flat for Q3, slightly below our estimate for 2% growth.

- Western European (EU15+EFTA) rose 8% yoy in Augustand is tracking up 2% for the quarter versus our Q3 estimate for 4%. Western European demand partially benefitted from a selling day shift from July in most major markets. We continue to see mid-single-digit growth as expected weakness in UK dampens growth through the end of the year. Positively, UK weakness has not been seen yet, with registrations +1% since Brexit. Earlier this week, Ford management provided forecasts that call for continued Europe growth in 2017 and 2018, expecting higher demand in Southern European countries and moderating headwinds in Russia to offset weakness in UK.

- Italy and Spain lead market higher. Italy and Spain demand each rose 15-20% yoy in August and both of these countries have grown double digits YTD. UK demand rose 3% yoy supported by higher fleet sales (+8% yoy), while private registrations were flat. Germany and France demand rose 7-8% yoy in August.

- OEM performance in August
----- OEMs gaining share: FCA (+20% yoy), Kia (+18%), Daimler/Toyota (+16%).
----- OEMs losing share: BMW and Nissan (flat yoy), PSA (+2%), GM (+4%).

- Premium OEMs continue to gain share. The three largest premium German OEMs saw total European demand rise 9% in August and are up 6% quarter-to-date. Mercedes continues to be the strongest premium brand in Europe (+8% quarter-to-date).

- Hybrids and EVs show strong growth. Hybrid and EV sales (which account for 2-3% of the market) increased 23% and 7% respectively in Q2.

- Total European production expanded 7% in August and is flat quarter-to-date, slightly below our Q3 estimate for 2% growth. With September typically representing roughly 40% of the quarter’s production, we believe this month’s data will be the swing factor for meeting our Q3 estimate.

- German production rose 25% in August, benefitting from higher build days (shift from July). Build is down 4% quarter-to-date due to weakness in July. The German VDA saw also higher orders in August (+6% yoy).

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Source: BAIRD - GAI





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